Panel Discussions - Wednesday, February 02, 2011
Rød-Larsen: Collapse of the Middle East Tent?
In a briefing at IPI's Vienna office, IPI President Terje Rød-Larsen warned that the situation in Egypt could have historic ramifications.
"The political landscape of the Middle East is changing, with consequences as dramatic as the revolutions in Europe of 1848 and 1989," he said.
"All countries of the region are different, but they are all being impacted," he said. "The world will also be affected; look at the jump in oil prices, the impact of shipping through the Suez Canal, and the political ripple effects."
Mr. Rød-Larsen, who has years of experience as a trouble-shooter in the Middle East, identified four epicenters of the conflagration in the Middle East: Iraq; Iran; Syria-Lebanon; and the Arab-Israeli conflict.
He also underlined vulnerabilities in Jordan, Libya and Yemen, and the crisis in Tunisia, and described how international relations in the region are based on perceptions as much as facts, and that the perceptions of states to each other and to the West are in a potentially dangerous state of flux.
Quoting a senior official from the Gulf, Mr. Rød-Larsen said that the Middle East is like a tent supported by two poles: Egypt and Saudi Arabia. "If one of the poles breaks, the whole tent will collapse."
Mr. Rød-Larsen urged the international community to take an active role in seeking a peaceful end to the current crisis in Egypt. He noted that the opposition is heterogeneous and lacks leadership. He underlined the need for solving issues through dialogue rather than on the streets.
Participants in the briefing discussed the impact of changes in Egypt on the Arab-Israeli conflict. Mr. Rød-Larsen pointed out that Egypt, under President Mubarak, had been a source of stability in the region for more than three decades. He described his recent contacts with the Egyptian elite and explained their perception of the situation. The timeliness of his remarks was underscored by demonstrations in Tahrir Square.
While in Vienna, Mr. Rød-Larsen held a number of meetings to launch projects that will be carried out by the IPI Vienna office over the next two years, particularly in areas of conflict prevention and transnational threats. IPI’s Vienna office opened in September 2010, and is IPI’s first office outside of New York.
The Global Observatory
Interview with John Prendergast, Co-Founder, Enough Project
Mr. Prendergast discusses the international justice system and the new ground forged by Invisible Children's Kony2012 campaign.
Key Global Events to Watch in May
A list of key upcoming meetings and events with implications for global affairs.
The Global Observatory is a new website by IPI, providing timely analysis on peace and security issues, interviews with leading policymakers, interactive maps, and more.
Recent Events
May 10, 2012
Arbour: What the Rule of Law Means
“In my understanding of the rule of law, fundamentally, what the rule of law means is that it embraces the principle of equality before the law,” Louise Arbour, president of the International Crisis Group (ICG), told an IPI audience on May 10, 2012. Ms. Arbour outlined that this means that no one is above the law and everyone has both equal protection and equal benefit of the law. 
May 03, 2012
Shachtman: Cyber Threats Akin to South Bronx, Not Pearl Harbor
“There’s not a danger of a cyber Pearl Harbor… it’s more like the South Bronx circa 1999, where there’s a danger that it becomes such a tough neighborhood that no one wants to set up shop there and people move out,” Noah Shachtman, editor of the Danger Room blog at Wired magazine and non-resident fellow at the Brookings Institution, told an IPI audience at a panel on cyber security on May 3, 2011.
April 27, 2012
Preventing Conflicts in Africa: The Role of Early Warning and Response Systems
An April 27th roundtable discussion at IPI titled “Preventing Conflicts in Africa: The Role of Early Warning and Response Systems” examined the progress, prospects and challenges of regional and international early warning and response mechanisms to monitor, anticipate, and mitigate potential conflict situations in Africa.