Policy Papers - December 11, 2013
When Do Civil-War Parties Heed the UN? Findings from the IPI Security Council Compliance Database
Christoph Mikulaschek and Chris Perry
The Security Council issued 1,557 demands to conflict parties in civil wars in the 15 years following the end of the Cold War, through its resolutions. Based on a statistical analysis of IPI’s Security Council Compliance Database, this report shows that while the levels of compliance with these demands varied, there was a slight increase in compliance over time.What factors influence the likelihood that conflict parties will comply? The authors find the following:
- Conflict parties are less likely to heed the Security Council’s demands if there is an ongoing civil war in a neighboring country; if there are significant sources of lootable natural resources; or if there has been a negative political shock, such as a shift toward autocracy.
- Conflict parties are more likely to comply with the Council’s demands if a multidimensional peacekeeping operation is present in the country.
- However, demands made in the presence of a traditional peacekeeping operation, alongside a current or previously imposed sanctions regime, or following a Security Council field mission tend to be associated with lower odds of compliance.
- Interestingly, a lack of continuous consensus among the permanent members of the Security Council is positively associated with compliance. The authors hypothesize that the shift from great-power disagreement to consensus can send a powerful signal to spoilers to heed their demands.
The authors conclude that it is particularly important for the Security Council to design its conflict management strategy with a strong basis in reality on the ground. They also warn against the spillover effects of persistent noncompliance with its demands across conflicts. Nonetheless, they suggest that the Council should not choose inaction over taking a principled stance when needed, even if it fears aggressors will not abide by its demands.
A database of all demands made in Security Council resolutions addressing civil wars between 1989 and 2003, providing detailed justifications and source references for all codes based on the coders’ assessment.
Download database (October 2012)
Download coding manual that contains methodology and coding notes
Download the "Guidelines for Assessing Compliance with Security Council Resolutions”
Data maps and graphs
These interfaces show various trends and characteristics of compliance with Security Council resolutions in civil wars from 1989 to 2003.
• Compliance Map
• Trends in Compliance
• Carrots and Sticks
• Field Presence
**Please note that many of the graphs presented here double as filters, so feel free to navigate to whatever subset of data you’re interested in. If you find yourself lost and need to reset the page, you can find a reset button at the bottom of the page that looks like this: .
The Global Observatory
Defying Spain, Catalans Vote for Independence, But What’s Next?
The unofficial Catalan referendum has raised several questions about Catalonia’s future and its relationship with Madrid.
Key Global Events to Watch in November
A list of key upcoming meetings and events with implications for global affairs.
2014 Top 10 Issues to Watch in Peace & Security: The Global Arena
A list of ten key issues to watch that are likely to impact international peace and security in 2014, compiled by IPI's Francesco Mancini.
The Global Observatory, produced by IPI, provides timely analysis on peace and security issues, interviews with leading policymakers, interactive maps, and more.
November 05, 2014
Top-Down Governance Hurts Women, Youth Participation
Governments in the Sahel and Maghreb are still using top-down approaches to governance that make it hard for women and youth to have a say in public life, even though their participation can help their governments’ struggle against instability and extremism.
November 03, 2014
Apakan on Ukraine: "To Be Present Is Important"
On November 3rd, IPI’s Vienna office hosted Ambassador Ertugrul Apakan, Chief Monitor of the Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).
November 03, 2014
Enhancing Women's Share in Peace and Security
“We did not want to make war safe for women; we wanted to end war for everyone,” Ambassador Anwarul Chowdhury said, recalling the goal of a new resolution he introduced as president of the Security Council in the year 2000.
September 25, 2014
IPI Remembers Margaret Vogt